Russia's Rassvet Constellation Stalls Below Its Target Orbit

Russia's Rassvet satellite network, billed as a domestic answer to SpaceX's Starlink, is struggling to reach operational altitude after its first two launch batches. None of the 32 satellites deployed so far have reached the 500 mile orbit they were designed to operate in, and at least three appear to have failed outright.

Rassvet began launching operational satellites earlier this year, with one flight in March and a second in July delivering 32 spacecraft to low-Earth orbit. That total represents about 10 percent of the roughly 300 satellites Russia aims to orbit by the end of next year for military and civilian connectivity. Bureau 1440, the company in charge of the program, wants to deploy 924 satellites by 2035. Russian forces have pressed for Rassvet since SpaceX cut off access in February to Starlink terminals in Ukraine that were unregistered, circumventing Russia's illicit use of the network for military operations.

The satellites were released much closer to Earth than their intended altitude and were expected to raise their orbits using onboard plasma engines over several months. The highest altitude achieved so far is a little more than 300 miles. Twelve of the 16 satellites from the March launch have settled into orbits at that altitude, according to an assessment released Monday by the Institute for the Study of War. One satellite from the March batch never maneuvered significantly and reentered the atmosphere in June, while two others have not raised their altitude in the last two months.

The second batch has shown similar trouble. Two satellites launched in July never maneuvered and appear to be heading for reentry, according to Anatoly Zak, editor of RussianSpaceWeb.com. Eleven of the 16 were noticeably climbing by early August, while three more appeared to stop maneuvering after initial attempts to raise their orbits. The Institute for the Study of War wrote that the second batch appears to have failed to reach intended operational altitudes, noting that none of the second group has climbed above 300 miles.

Some anomalies were anticipated. About 5 percent of SpaceX's first batch of Starlink satellites failed almost immediately, and that group of 60 prototypes eventually reached a failure rate of about 13 percent, according to independent tracker Jonathan McDowell. The US Space Development Agency also encountered thermal and propulsion problems with some of its first 42 operational satellites, which took longer than anticipated to raise their orbits.

The Institute for the Study of War said the existing Rassvet constellation still presents a threat to Ukraine, potentially allowing Russian forces to conduct more precise strikes using remotely controlled unmanned systems and to leverage satellite communications during limited windows of connectivity. The 12 satellites at 300 miles are lined up to pass over Ukraine twice per day for communication windows of up to 90 minutes. Former Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov acknowledged the difficulty in a 2023 interview, saying, "It turned out we weren't ready for this."

It will take 16 more launches to bring Rassvet's coverage over Ukraine anywhere close to continuous. Ukraine is taking steps to make further launches harder, striking the factory that builds the Soyuz rockets needed for Rassvet payloads and dispatching drones against the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, though those strikes have not landed a direct hit. The Institute for the Study of War said such attacks may hinder Russia's ability to launch satellites and further delay its goal of establishing a Starlink analogue.